George Groves and Callum Smith face off in the World Boxing Super Series super-middleweight final on Friday and I’m backing ‘Saint George’ to claim the win inside the distance.
George Groves by KO, TKO or Disqualification @ 3/1
Groves has a fairly impressive knockout ratio with 20 in his 28 career wins so far, and four in his last seven outings now he’s at the very top level.
Smith has never been stopped – or even beaten – in 24 pro fights but he has never faced anyone near the quality of the WBA Super champ and his wins on route to this final have hardly been eye-catching, with decision victories over Erik Skoglund and late replacement Nieky Holzken.
In contrast this competition has really brought out the best in Groves as the 30-year-old dismantled Jamie Cox in his opener before giving Chris Eubank Jr a real lesson in a points win in the semi-finals.
The fact this showdown takes place in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, could also work in Groves’ favour as he has greater experience in terms of travelling for fights, with five of his bouts so far taking place outside of the UK in comparison to just two for Smith.
Groves to win in rounds 7-9 and 10-12 @ 10/1 and 16/1
Smith tends to start strongly before tiring towards the end of his fights – probably due to the fact he is huge for a super-middleweight at 6′ 3″.
Admittedly Groves has never faced anyone of the Liverpudlian’s size but he has beaten bigger men before and his greater technique should tell in the later rounds as Smith begins to show signs of fatigue.
Covering both rounds 7-9 and 10-12 in the grouped round betting market should pay dividends, and if you do fancy a specific round I’m quite tempted by the eighth at 25/1.